Amid the gloom and doom outlook for Malaysia in 2016, contrarian property consultant, Dato’ Sri Gavin Tee predicts a glowing picture of the Malaysian market from 2018 onwards.
True to his contrarian outlook, Dato’ Sri Gavin Tee predicts that from 2018, the property market in Malaysia will start to come out of the doldrums and hit its peak between 2018 and 2020, after which the market will settle into a matured phase between 2025 and 2030. Prior to that bright period however, the country will see its worst market performance in 2016 since the past 8 years.
Speaking recently at the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Swhengtee Group and PropertyGuru & Sin Chew in conjunction with the Swhengtee Real Estate Investment EXPO KL 2016, the property consultant said that his forecast is divided into 3 time frames:
1. 2016 – the worst time of past 8 years in terms of market performance.
2. 2018 – 2020 – Malaysia will hit peak time; enjoy its boom time!
3. 2025 – 2030 – Property market will reach matured stage where many places would have been developed and urbanised e.g. Iskandar Region.
Tee, who is the President of Swhengtee Group, added that in 2016, the primary market will continue to drive the market with the secondary market price in tow. “Secondary properties completed less than 5 years are selling at 5- 10% lower than the primary market. The gap becomes even bigger when the property is aged 10 years and above – prices would be 20- 30 % lower than the primary market price. This is assuming the properties are comparable in all respects including being in the same location.” Tee gave the example of a new condo that can sell at RM1 million while a comparable condo which is similar in all respects including location, but is 10 years older can only fetch between RM700K – RM800K.
In the second tier market such as Klang, Sungai Buloh and Kajang, the gap is even bigger with some secondary properties selling at 20 – 30% lower than the primary market. This is partly because of the distance from the city centre – despite new and faster transportation modes which cut down travelling time, the perception still persists that these areas are too far away from downtown Kuala Lumpur.
The gap in pricing between the primary and secondary market is not seen however in prime properties such as those located within the core Kuala Lumpur city centre, “largely because both old and new properties there are high in demand and easy to rent,” offered Tee.
There is also another factor at play – purchasing directly from developers enables greater cost savings and easier financing hence attracting a bigger pool of buyers who are willing to pay a higher price for this convenience.
The next boom cycle
During the 2018 – 2020 boom, the international speaker forecast that commercial property will trend towards centralisation while residential property will disperse further away from the core centre, in other words, decentralise. “This is due to the many mega projects and infrastructure being completed accelerating the speed of growth in urban areas. Mega developments such as Tun Razak Exchange (TRX), Bandar Malaysia; and major changes in infrastructure, will drive the diverging trend of the commercial and residential segments. “Centralised commercial properties, which are not just concentrated in KL city centre, but at the centre of huge satellite cities or suburban townships like Bangsar South, Sentral, Puchong, Damansara, and Bandar Utama, will see higher prices while the rest will witness slow movement in their price.”
By the years 2025 – 2030, Malaysia would be evolving into a developed nation and prices would reflect that. There are however still pockets of land in the countryside that would be very sought after by retirees from all over the world. “These people realise that there are still plentiful of beautiful landscapes in the countryside filled with lush greenery and fresh air –the demand will cause these and rural land to rise in value and eventually become prime and expensive land. Green will be very much sought after and will be the key selling point for these buyers.”
In addition, the entire landscape in the country will witness a gradual change as the rail revolution firmly takes root. At the forefront would be the upcoming High Speed Rail from Singapore to Kuala Lumpur, followed by the MRT and LRT Line 2 & 3 in Greater Klang Valley and possibly the Pan-Asian railway. “It will even cause a revolution in how people buy property. Location is not the most important investment factor but timing is. Tee quoted his investment in Mid Valley office and Bukit Ceylon condo which were perceived as unfavourable locations years before but then the right timing came in 2013. He further explained that travelling time is not the key factor in property investment but proximity and connectivity are. An example is the mistake that investors made when they believed that the North South Highway will shorten travelling time to the city centre from Rawang.
He advised investors not to be ignorant of the Rail Revolution effect and the many opportunities thrown up, emphasising that the Rail Revolution effect will be a game-changer in real estate. Further details will of course be elaborated in Tee’s upcoming forecast talk.
Finally, during the matured period, Malaysia will start experiencing the ‘ASEAN Effect’ which is similar to the “China Effect” where a lot of the newly rich will start buying properties in global hotspots such as Melbourne, Sydney, New York, London and Tokyo.
Tee will be elaborating more on all the above during Swhengtee 9th Annual Property Forecast Talk 2016 held concurrently with the Swhengtee Real Estate Investment EXPO KL 2016 from Feb 26 – 28. Organised by the Swhengtee Group in collaboration with Real Estate Malaysia magazine and Asian Property Review magazine, the three-day expo will be taking place at the Mid Valley Exhibition Centre (MVEC) in Kuala Lumpur. Visitors will get a chance to uncover real estate gems in what promises to be the biggest gathering of serious investors in the country.
For more ticket information on Swhengtee 9th Annual Property Forecast Talk, please contact 6016-202 0001, 603- 2288 8588 or log on to www.swhengtee. com.my/forecast2016 for details.
Promotion tickets: RM180 (UP: RM380).